Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 0.9% in August 2026, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, and values now sit 3.6% below the March peak. Sydney is 7.1% below its February peak, 93% of capital city suburbs lost value through winter, and quarterly sales are running 15.5% below a year ago while advertised stock is 24% higher. That is not a market for hotspot predictions.
So this list is not one. It runs a fixed screen over public data (sales depth, price, growth, yield, rail and bushfire exposure, set out below) and reports the ten suburbs that pass. This is general information, not investment advice, and no suburb here is a recommendation to buy.
How this list was built
Six tests, chosen because none of them depends on cheap credit:
- Sales depth: at least 40 house sales in the measurement window and a population of at least 5,000 at the 2021 Census.
- Price: the median house is below the relevant capital's Cotality median at 31 August 2026 (Sydney $1,494,878, Melbourne $920,432, Adelaide $999,091, Brisbane $1,180,552, Perth $1,043,478).
- Growth: five-year house price growth is positive.
- Yield: a gross yield of 3.5% or better on a 3-bedroom house (weekly rent times 52, divided by the house price, rounded to one decimal place).
- Rail: a train station within about 2 km of the suburb centre.
- Bushfire: no more than 5% of properties on the state bushfire-prone land map, where one exists.
For New South Wales the whole screen runs on PropertyGo's suburb dataset: 24-month Valuer General medians and sale counts to 31 July 2026, rents from bond lodgements, growth from rolling 12-month medians, census data and the bushfire overlay. Of 779 NSW suburbs, 12 passed. Three are here for geographic mix; the other nine (Leeton, Junee, Singleton, Parkes, Tumut, Albion Park Rail, Dapto, Griffith and Mayfield) passed on the same numbers.
For Victoria and South Australia the price is the typical house price on each suburb page, a sales-weighted average of the four latest quarterly medians from the Victorian Valuer-General (to the December 2025 quarter, so before Melbourne's 2026 fall) and Land Services SA (to the June 2026 quarter), with rents from Homes Victoria and SA Housing Trust bond data and station distances from OpenStreetMap. Queensland and Western Australia are not in the dataset, so those suburbs use REIWA and Cotality figures published in September 2026 with no sale-count or bushfire check. The price cap reflects the two-speed pattern Cotality keeps reporting, with the cheapest quarter holding while the top tier falls; the entry-level market analysis covers that split.
The ten suburbs at a glance
| Suburb | State | House price | 12-month | 5-year | 3-br rent | Gross yield | Train |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | NSW | $978,888 | +8.9% | +30.3% | $650 | 3.5% | 1.2 km |
| Woy Woy | NSW | $1,025,000 | +14.3% | +37.9% | $690 | 3.5% | 1.1 km |
| Goulburn | NSW | $665,250 | +5.4% | +45.3% | $500 | 3.9% | 1.4 km |
| Craigieburn | VIC | $710,000 | +7.1% | +25.7% | $500 | 3.7% | in suburb |
| Corio | VIC | $537,000 | +9.8% | +38.8% | $420 | 4.1% | 1.9 km |
| Salisbury | SA | $794,000 | +16.4% | +119.3% | $580 | 3.8% | in suburb |
| Parafield Gardens | SA | $854,000 | +18.6% | +117.9% | $600 | 3.7% | 1.5 km |
| Kallangur | QLD | $905,000 | +16.8% | n/a | $610 | 3.5% | 1.0 km |
| Nambour | QLD | $890,000 | +14.6% | n/a | $680 | 4.0% | 0.2 km |
| Midland | WA | $710,000 | +20.3% | n/a | $695 | 5.1% | 0.4 km |
NSW prices are 24-month medians to 31 July 2026; VIC and SA are typical house prices to the December 2025 and June 2026 quarters. Kallangur and Nambour are Cotality 12-month medians and rents published by Your Investment Property on 7 September 2026; Midland is REIWA data for the 12 months to August 2026. Every yield is weekly rent times 52 divided by the price shown (Cotality's own yield estimates for Kallangur and Nambour are 3.7% and 4.2%). Growth figures compare rolling medians of settled sales and lag the Cotality index by months.
Richmond, NSW 2753
Richmond is Sydney's north-west edge: a Hawkesbury town with its own station, a RAAF base and a 24-month median of $978,888 from 128 house sales, about $516,000 under the Sydney median. A 3-bedroom house rents for $650 a week, a 3.45% yield that the dataset rounds to 3.5%, the thinnest pass on this list. Prices are up 8.9% on the prior 12-month median and 30.3% over five years, and only 2.0% of properties sit on the bushfire-prone map.
It suits a buyer who needs a house inside the Sydney First Home Guarantee cap, or an owner-occupier working around Penrith. The risk is water, not fire: Richmond sits on the Hawkesbury-Nepean floodplain and flooded in 2021 and 2022. Get the council flood certificate and an insurance quote before you price the house, following the flood risk due diligence guide.
Woy Woy, NSW 2256
Woy Woy on the Central Coast passes on 249 house sales and a $1,025,000 median, with a $690 weekly rent and a 3.5% yield. It is the strongest 12-month mover among the NSW picks at +14.3%, with 37.9% growth over five years and 91.3% over ten. The station is 1.1 km from the centre, a little over an hour from Central.
It suits a Sydney worker trading the commute for a house near the water. Household income is $1,151 a week, low for a million-dollar suburb, so growth has been carried by buyers arriving from outside rather than local wages, and much of the peninsula is low-lying, so Richmond's flood and insurance checks apply. The Central Coast features in the NSW first-home affordability guide for the same reasons.
Goulburn, NSW 2580
Goulburn is the regional pick because it has two capitals in reach: about an hour to Canberra by road and two hours to Sydney by rail from a station 1.4 km from the centre. The 24-month median is $665,250 from 116 house sales, a 3-bedroom house rents for $500 a week, and the yield is 3.9%. Growth is 5.4% over 12 months and 45.3% over five years, with 62.8% owner-occupation.
It suits a buyer priced out of Canberra, or a rentvestor who wants yield with a government employment base underneath it. Regional markets are no longer insulated: Cotality's combined regional index fell 0.4% in August 2026, and regional South Australia was the only broad rest-of-state market to avoid a decline over the three months to August. The regional market split analysis shows which belts are still rising.
Craigieburn, VIC 3064
Craigieburn is the largest market here: 1,170 house sales in the rolling year to the December 2025 quarter, a typical house price of $710,000, a population of 65,178 and household income of $1,798 a week. Homes Victoria's moving annual median for a 3-bedroom house was $500 a week at September 2025 across 1,059 leases, a 3.7% yield. The suburb sits at the end of its own metropolitan rail line.
It suits a family buyer who wants a modern house under the Melbourne median and inside the Victorian First Home Guarantee cap, with liquidity: at a thousand house sales a year you can always find a comparable. Melbourne house values fell 5.7% in the year to August 2026 and the Valuer-General data predates most of that fall, so price off the last 90 days of sales. The Hume corridor also keeps releasing land north of the suburb, which caps how fast established stock reprices. The wider case is in Melbourne as the best-value capital.
Corio, VIC 3214
Corio in Geelong's north is the cheapest entry: a typical house price of $537,000 from 401 house sales in the rolling year to the December 2025 quarter, with growth of 9.8% over 12 months, 38.8% over five years and 101.7% over ten. Homes Victoria puts the 3-bedroom rent at $420 a week across 528 leases in the Corio rental area, a 4.1% yield, and Corio station on the Geelong line is 1.9 km from the centre.
It suits an investor who wants yield and a rising floor, or a first home buyer who wants a freestanding house on a full block for the price of a Melbourne unit. The risk is concentration: Corio is in SEIFA advantage decile 1 of 10, household income is $1,152 a week, and employment leans on the refinery and heavy industry along the bay. Much of the stock is post-war, so price the renovation first, and the December 2025 quarter price predates this year's Victorian falls.
Salisbury, SA 5108
Salisbury is Adelaide's northern transport hub, with the Salisbury Interchange inside the suburb on the Gawler line. Land Services SA data puts the typical house price at $794,000 for the rolling year to the June 2026 quarter, up 16.4% over 12 months and 119.3% over five years. Bonds lodged between April and June 2026 put the 3-bedroom rent at $580 a week, a 3.8% yield.
It suits a buyer who wants an established house under the Adelaide median, in a city whose values rose 8.6% in the year to August 2026, with a station rather than a car commute. The pass rests on 96 house sales, the thinnest sample here, and a suburb that has more than doubled in five years on a household income of $1,029 a week is late in its cycle; Adelaide fell 0.8% in August 2026, its first real crack. Buy for the yield and the rail, not for a repeat.
Parafield Gardens, SA 5107
Parafield Gardens is one suburb north on the same line, with deeper data: 219 house sales in the rolling year to the June 2026 quarter, a typical house price of $854,000 and 12-month growth of 18.6%. The Valuer-General's March 2026 quarter, reported by API Magazine on 8 May 2026, had it at $875,500 on 43 sales, so the two series agree. A 3-bedroom house rents for $600 a week on 65 June-quarter bonds, a 3.7% yield. The station is 1.5 km from the centre.
It suits a family buyer who wants a bigger, younger suburb than Salisbury (population 18,467, income $1,384 a week) with the same rail link. The risk is the same late-cycle exposure plus a thinner discount: $854,000 is only $145,000 under Adelaide's median. At 3.7% a mortgage at current rates costs more than the rent covers, so check the cash flow before assuming a rentvest works.
Kallangur, QLD 4503
Kallangur, in Moreton Bay north of Brisbane, is on Cotality data. The 12-month median house price was $905,000 at 7 September 2026, up 16.8%, with a $610 weekly rent, a 3.5% gross yield on those two figures (Cotality's own estimate is 3.7%). Affinity Property's June 2026 report, also on Cotality data, counted 339 house sales in the 12 months to April 2026, 11 days on market and a vacancy rate of 0.68%. Kallangur station is about 1 km from the centre.
It suits a buyer who wants a house under the Brisbane median of $1,180,552 with rail to the city and a genuine rental shortage underneath it. Brisbane's run is ending, not starting: values fell 1.0% in August 2026 after rising 10.3% over the year, and sales are down more than 20% on a year ago. Parts of Moreton Bay are flood-mapped and no flood screen was possible, so do that check yourself.
Nambour, QLD 4560
Nambour is the Sunshine Coast hinterland's service town, with a public hospital, a courthouse and a station on the North Coast line 200 metres from the centre. Cotality's 12-month median house price was $890,000 at 7 September 2026, up 14.6%, with a $680 weekly rent and a 4.0% yield on those figures (Cotality's own estimate is 4.2%). Cotality's suburb table published by Sunshine Coast News on 3 February 2026 had the median value at $870,841 against a coast-wide $1,285,000, a hinterland discount of about 32%.
It suits a buyer who wants Sunshine Coast employment and yield without the coastline premium. The discount exists for reasons: Nambour is inland, parts of the town along Petrie Creek are flood-prone, and the stock is older and mixed. The Sunshine Coast is also an east-coast lifestyle belt where the regional index has started easing.
Midland, WA 6056
Midland is 17 km east of Perth at the end of its own rail line, with a hospital precinct and a town centre. REIWA's suburb profile for the 12 months to August 2026 shows a median house price of $710,000, up 20.3%, a median house rent of $695 a week and 13 days on market: a 5.1% gross yield, the highest here. Cotality's version is $695,000 and 4.6%. The station is about 400 metres from the centre, and the price is a 32% discount to Perth's $1,043,478 median.
It suits an investor who wants yield first, or an owner-occupier who wants a station and a hospital within walking distance. Perth is the last capital to turn: house values rose 15.6% in the year to August 2026 but fell 0.7% in August, and sales are down more than 20% on a year ago. Midland also carries a long-standing reputation for social issues that shows up in the price; walk the specific street, because the median blends very different pockets.
Suburbs that missed the cut, and why
Blacktown, NSW. The deepest market in western Sydney, with 952 house sales and a station 500 metres from the centre, but a $1,130,000 median against a $650 rent is a 3.0% yield. Failed on yield alone.
Dubbo, NSW. 855 house sales, a $645,000 median, a 4.4% yield and 13% 12-month growth, but the station is 2.1 km from the centre. It missed by 100 metres, which shows the rail rule is blunt; if you would accept a bike ride, Dubbo belongs ahead of Goulburn.
Morphett Vale, SA. Southern Adelaide's deepest market with 435 house sales, a $789,000 typical house price and a 3.95% yield, but Lonsdale and Noarlunga Centre stations are both more than 3 km away.
Christies Beach, SA. On the Seaford line and up 16.8% in 12 months, but $906,000 against a $600 rent is a 3.44% yield, six basis points short. Moss Vale (3.4%) failed the same way; Charlestown failed on bushfire exposure, with 28.6% of properties on the map.
How to use this list
Treat the screen as a shortlist generator, not a verdict. You will not buy a median.
Reprice to the last 90 days. In a market that fell 0.9% in August alone, a 24-month or rolling-year figure overstates what a house is worth today, most of all in Sydney, Melbourne and now Brisbane. Pull settled sales from the last quarter and weight the newest. The falling-market buyer's guide covers anchoring an offer to those sales.
Run the hazard checks the screen could not. The bushfire overlay is NSW-only and no flood test was applied anywhere; Richmond, Woy Woy, Kallangur and Nambour all have flood-mapped land. Get the planning certificate and an insurance quote before you exchange. A premium you cannot afford is a price you cannot afford.
Read the building, not the suburb. Building and pest, drainage, roof and wiring; several of these suburbs have post-war stock where the renovation outweighs the discount.
Get someone local. A buyer's agent who works the corridor knows which streets in Midland or Corio carry the discount and what passed-in vendors accepted last weekend. GoMatch pairs you with buyer's agents who work your target area, free and without obligation.
Frequently asked questions
Is this list investment advice?
No. It is a data screen with the criteria stated so you can rerun or change them, and it ignores your borrowing capacity, tax position and timeframe. Take it to a licensed adviser, a mortgage broker and a buyer's agent before acting on it.
Why are the growth figures positive when Cotality says values are falling?
They measure different things: Cotality's index is a daily hedonic estimate of every home's value, while the figures here compare rolling medians of settled sales, which lag by months and still contain sales from before the March 2026 peak. Expect the next release of most of them to be lower.
Why is there no Sydney middle-ring or inner-city suburb?
None passed. With Sydney's median house at $1,494,878 and gross house yields near 3%, the price and yield tests push the passing suburbs to the fringe, the Central Coast and the regions. Quakers Hill, Riverstone and Merrylands failed on yield alone, as Blacktown did.
Can I use the First Home Guarantee in these suburbs?
For a house near the median, yes in most of them: the capital-city caps are $1,500,000 in NSW, $950,000 in Victoria, $900,000 in South Australia, $1,000,000 in Queensland and $850,000 in Western Australia. Regional caps are lower, so check the schedule for Goulburn and Nambour.
What to do now
If a suburb here matches your budget and your life, open its page and read the street-level sales rather than the headline figure, work out what a comparable house cleared for in August, and order the flood and planning certificates before you fall for a kitchen.
If none of them fit, take the screen instead of the list: set your own price cap, yield floor and commute limit and run it over the data. The market is giving buyers more time than it has since 2022. Spend it on the checks rather than on the waiting.
Sources
- Cotality, "Housing downturn spreads as 93% of capital city suburbs record winter value falls", Home Value Index results for August 2026. Published 1 September 2026.
- Cotality, Home Value Index, capital city medians and 12-month changes as at 31 August 2026.
- PropertyGo suburb dataset: NSW Valuer General sales to 31 July 2026, NSW rental bonds, ABS Census 2021, ABS SEIFA 2021, NSW bushfire-prone land map. Accessed 7 September 2026.
- Victorian Valuer-General, "Property sales statistics", suburb medians to the December 2025 quarter, via PropertyGo suburb pages.
- Land Services SA, "Metro median house sales", suburb medians to the June 2026 quarter, via PropertyGo suburb pages.
- Homes Victoria, "Moving annual rent by suburb", Rental Report September quarter 2025. Department of Families, Fairness and Housing.
- SA Housing Trust, "Private Rent Report", quarterly rent report April to June 2026, data.sa.gov.au.
- REIWA, suburb profile for Midland, 12 months to August 2026. Accessed 7 September 2026.
- Your Investment Property, suburb profiles for Kallangur, Nambour and Midland (Cotality data). Report dated 7 September 2026.
- Affinity Property Australia, "Kallangur Property Market Report", June 2026 (Cotality data to April 2026). Published 30 June 2026.
- Sunshine Coast News, "Noosa to Nambour: every suburb's median house value revealed" (Cotality data). 3 February 2026.
- API Magazine, "South Australia's hotspots: where property investors are chasing growth in 2026" (Valuer-General March 2026 quarter). 8 May 2026.
- OpenStreetMap Nominatim, suburb and railway station coordinates for VIC, SA, QLD and WA suburbs. Queried 7 September 2026.
