Australia's Housing Crisis: Brisbane's Vacancy Rates Are the Warning Sign

Australia faces a housing crisis that can no longer be ignored.

From record-low rental vacancies to skyrocketing rents, the reality is hitting everyday Australians. Hard. For many, the dream of home ownership feels further away than ever. Even securing a rental has become a battle of applications, bidding wars, and sheer disappointment.

Across our sunburnt country—from its red centre to our salt-stung coastlines—vacancy rates have sunk to historic lows. They sit at around 1.2-1.6%, whereas a balanced market usually has vacancy rates of around 3%. This means tenants now compete for less than half the number of available homes we once considered normal. It's no wonder rental prices have climbed more than 40% since 2020.

Yet, while the headlines spotlight the national housing crisis, the impact upon everyday Australians is not uniform. Brisbane and Melbourne—two of Australia's largest capitals—tell different stories when it comes to vacancy rates, rental pressure, and buyer behaviour.

Why Do Vacancy Rates Matter?

Vacancy rates are one of the clearest indicators of supply and demand in a rental market. When they're high, renters have more choice, and landlords may need to negotiate. When they're low, the dynamic becomes quite the opposite—and quite unbearable for buyers.

Right now? The pendulum of power swings almost entirely towards the landlords.

According to SQM Research, Brisbane's vacancy rate sits close to 1%, while Melbourne's has hovered around 1.4-1.8%.

On paper, the difference might seem small.

In practice, Brisbane's market is far more competitive. Every available property attracts dozens of applicants, and homes are often snapped up within days.

Lauren Jones, Principal of Lauren Jones Buyers Agency (LJBA), sees the fallout firsthand.

"Week in week out, we see lines out the door at inspections, rental prices rising slowly but surely, and families who simply can't secure a home in Brisbane," Jones says.

"For everyday buyers, that pressure in the rental market often pushes them to consider buying sooner. But then they hit another wall with affordability."

What's the Difference Between Brisbane and Melbourne's Vacancy Rates?

Melbourne has had its fair share of turbulence. During the pandemic, the city saw a mass departure of students and workers, and vacancy rates spiked. That temporary breathing room has since evaporated as the city rebounds. However, Melbourne's higher apartment stock keeps its vacancy rates slightly higher than Brisbane's.

Brisbane, meanwhile, has been a different story. Between 2020 and 2024, Greater Brisbane's population grew by 6.3%, more than double Melbourne's rate. Migration from southern states surged, with people chasing affordability, lifestyle, and—increasingly—opportunities ahead of the 2032 Olympics. The problem? Housing supply didn't keep up.

As a result, Brisbane overtook Melbourne in weekly rents, with a median of $687 compared to Melbourne's $613. Brisbane is now the third-most expensive capital city to rent in, behind Sydney and Perth.

"Brisbane is booming, but our housing pipeline hasn't kept up with the pace," Jones says. "We're seeing vacancy rates scraping 1% and rental prices rising faster than wages."

How Can Everyday Buyers Navigate Australia's Housing Crisis?

For renters, these conditions are brutal. Low vacancies mean fewer choices, and the properties that do come up are often unaffordable. Some families in Brisbane have even resorted to selling their homes and becoming "forever renters" in response to the Australian housing crisis.

For would-be first-home buyers, the choice feels impossible; keep paying higher rents and struggle to save a deposit, or buy into a market where prices are already near record highs.

Jones says many of LJBA's prospective clients are in this exact position.

"It's a catch 22… The key is having the right strategy. Even starting with a townhouse or an apartment in the right area can be better than waiting for the perfect time…The longer you wait, the further prices and rents climb."

Investors, meanwhile, are eyeing the situation differently. With rents surging and tenants abundant, yields in Brisbane are holding up well. According to SQM Research, units in many parts of the city are still achieving gross yields above 4%. That's keeping investors interested, particularly interstate buyers looking to diversify.

But Jones warns that chasing yield alone can be short-sighted.

"Investors need to look at the fundamentals, like proximity to jobs, transport, schools, and lifestyle hubs. Vacancy rates show the demand is there, but long-term growth depends on choosing locations with strong community and infrastructure."

How Did Australia Enter a Housing Crisis?

Zooming out, Australia's housing crisis is the product of years and years of under-building. In 2024, just 168,000 new homes were commenced nationwide, which keeps figures at record lows and falls well short of the annual target needed to reach the National Housing Accord's goal of 1.2 million homes by 2030. Projections suggest we may not even hit 1 million.

Combine this shortfall with population growth running at double the pre-COVID pace, and the result is predictable: ultra-low vacancy rates, record rents, and buyers pushed into a market where competition is fierce.

Worst of all—there's no easy fix. Governments are rolling out plans to boost housing supply, but these projects take years. In the meantime, renters and buyers are left navigating one of the toughest property markets Australia has ever seen.

How Can a Buyer's Agent Help During Australia's Housing Crisis?

This is a time where local expertise truly matters in the property game.

"We can't solve the housing crisis overnight," Jones says. "What we can do is give our clients the tools and strategies to navigate it. Whether you're a renter considering buying, or an investor looking for opportunities, understanding how vacancy rates affect the market is critical."

Australia's housing crisis is here to stay—at least for the foreseeable future. Vacancy rates in Brisbane and Melbourne show just how stretched our markets are, but Brisbane stands out as a case study of what happens when rapid growth collides with limited supply.

For everyday Australians, that means competition, stress, and tough decisions. But with the right guidance, there are still opportunities to secure a home—or an investment—that can withstand the pressure of a market in crisis.